GLG News by Stock/Commodities Exchanges Experts

Avinash PersaudChairmanIntelligence Capital Limited

Bounce in global bank shares will be limited from here

August 19, 2008

Analysis of:Bank Debt Risk Rises as Writedowns, Losses Exceed $500 Billion | www.bloomberg.com

Since January 2007 the world’s biggest commercial and investment banks have written down $497bn of bad debt. The optimists suggest the worse is now behind us. Perhaps, but the bounce will be limited from here. Hope springs from the belief that banks have written down what there is to be written down, the authorities are bending over backwards to help and buyers of credit are emerging. Markets are forward looking and so bank stocks will recover before the cycle of write-downs is complete. The drop in bank share prices appears to be based on a pessimistic view of the quality of balance sheets. But maybe it is a realistic reflection of the new world of banking. Past bumper revenues from securitisation and mortgage businesses will not be replaced. New business models will take time. There will be exceptions, but even “good” banks will be affected by the regulatory backlash. And then there are the deflated animal spirits that will keep lending and borrowing down.

Patrick YoungFounder and ChairmanDerivatives Vision

Think Again Indeed!

July 29, 2008

Analysis of:Regulation of rating agencies is no panacea | www.ft.com

The idea of regulation for ratings agencies can appear a seductive panacea but it is riddled with dangerous implications...

Patrick YoungFounder and ChairmanDerivatives Vision

A Processing Giant Assessing Its Futures Future in a World of Turmoil

April 4, 2008

Analysis of:MF Global considers financing options | www.reuters.com

MF Global is one of the key players in the global exchange traded derivatives (ETD) brokerage industry with the power to make and potentially, to break, markets, leading to some fascinating -and very significant- political dynamics within the industry. MF Global has been stung by recent activity on the rumour mill  as well as its own frank admission of a risk system failure that cost it dearly. MF Global has a massive opportunity but knows it must work hard to ensure its reputation is whiter than white - particularly as some of its acquisitions have included key elements of the tarnished Refco name etc.

Patrick YoungFounder and ChairmanDerivatives Vision

Amazon Attempts a Monopolsts's Squeze

April 2, 2008

Analysis of:Amazon Tightens Noose on Print-On-Demand Publishers; Insists They Use Company's Own Service | www.washingtonpost.com

Amazon is attempting to own the book business by exercising control of the small fast growing independent end of the market. Ultimately having done much good for book buyers and helped publishers, Amazon is now in danger of squeezing the small houses they have helped encourage. Book publishing is in danger of having a very significant element of control levied by Amazon which will profit Messrs Bezos and Company in the short term but not in any way assist the development or innovation in the publishing business. In the long term Amazon will see their catalogue shrink. Their market share will decline and they will stifle the growth of the book publishing business. Make no mistake, this is a very very bad day for technological innovators, small businesses and publishing as an industry. For Amazon, it is a foolish plodding play of a monopolist which plainly has lost sight of the fact that treating suppliers with disdain will create a backlash. Finally expect higher book prices too!

Patrick YoungFounder and ChairmanDerivatives Vision

How Foolish We Were ...and Will be Once Again!

March 26, 2008

Analysis of:A Nation of Enrons | www.fool.com

Ultimately all markets go in cycles. The concept that property, to name but one sector, would forever go up, was a delusion of the Florida land grab of the 1920s and umpteen other times in history, not just the very recent past... Sadly in the modern age, the analysis remains that even with new-fangled tools to lose money by, the old fashioned methods of over-leverage and foolishly bullish beliefs are working just fine too.

Patrick YoungFounder and ChairmanDerivatives Vision

CME Across Asset Classes

March 11, 2008

Analysis of:Nymex stakes in other exchanges a factor in talks with CME | www.marketwatch.com

CME has run its slide rule across cash exchanges before but never taken the plunge to acquire one. Equally, it seeks to create partnerships where it can act as a predator and buy out the partner (see my previous analysis on the subject). Sooner or later CME will likely acquire beyond its traditional futures sectors and there is a wealth of deals out there... However, the key thing CME (and other predatory exchanges) need to do in the long term is to diversify beyond US dollar denominated markets.

Patrick YoungFounder and ChairmanDerivatives Vision

Now For the Hard Part!

March 10, 2008

Analysis of:Thomson-Reuters Merger Approved | money.cnn.com

The ability of the new merged management team to keep clients happy when products are merged is going to be a key issue in making this merger work. Staff are understandably nervous about their prospects and the history of Reuters in recent years has included a great deal of almost ongoing upheaval.

Patrick YoungFounder and ChairmanDerivatives Vision

NYMEX processes with gusto...

February 8, 2008

Analysis of:Nymex Earnings Rise on Fee Growth | biz.yahoo.com

Another exchange, another strong processing result...Just imagine what would hapen if they could close the bottleneck of the floor!

Patrick YoungFounder and ChairmanDerivatives Vision

Here We Go Again!

February 8, 2008

Analysis of:Europe banks to launch derivatives platform | www.ft.com

The political battle between the big banks and exchanges is becoming more explosive than ever.

Patrick YoungFounder and ChairmanDerivatives Vision

CME Uses the Predator Partnership - Again

January 30, 2008

Analysis of:CME-Nymex: Good Deal? | online.wsj.com

CME deal value is related not just to exchange growth but also the state of commodity prices. Nevertheless, CME is best placed to acquire CME for approximately 40 key reasons

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