GLG News by Structured Finance Experts

John KilpatrickChief Executive OfficerGREENFIELD ADVISORS

Why this housing recession is a bit different

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Pending home sales hit record low | money.cnn.com

1.  Prior post-war recessions were not accompanied by nominal housing price declines 2.  This leads to fewer homes on the market -- in many cases due to "paper" holding losses on homes that otherwise would transact. 2.  There is a massive liquidity preference at work, with households paying down debt and retaining cash.

John KilpatrickChief Executive OfficerGREENFIELD ADVISORS

The Devil's in the Details

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Citi: Mortgage break to unemployed | money.cnn.com

1.  Is this a real interest rate reduction -- either temporary or permanent -- or a big negative amortization? 2.  How will this affect homeowners credit reports and ratings? 3.  Does this apply only to CITI-owned mortgages, or also to mortgages serviced by CITI but owned by institutions and other investors?

John KilpatrickChief Executive OfficerGREENFIELD ADVISORS

Shades of the S&L Crisis

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Property investors returning to second homes market as prices fall | www.propertywire.com

1.  During the S&L Crisis, 2nd home sales were hit hard, particularly in the time-share market.  2.  A contributing factor was lack of permanent financing. 3.  Following the crisis, when mortgage markets rebounded, 2nd home sales rebounded as well.

John KilpatrickChief Executive OfficerGREENFIELD ADVISORS

Mark-to-Market Rules Confuse the Issues

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Fannie, Freddie to fund part of plan | money.cnn.com

Fannie and Freddie hold mortgages, which in turn are financed by bond issuances.  With these subsidies, Fan/Fred will actually save a lot of dead-weight foreclosure costs. Unfortunately, Mark-to-Market Rules put Fan/Fred in a strange accounting trade-off.

John KilpatrickChief Executive OfficerGREENFIELD ADVISORS

Fixing the market = Flying an airplane

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Who won't be helped by housing fix | money.cnn.com

This article looks at the recovery plan from the homeowner perspective.  Unfortunately, that's the wrong way to look at it.

Justin HupetPrincipal & Managing PartnerFour Peaks Capital LLC

Canadian Banks: "Steady As She Goes - Weather-Beaten By The Economic Hurricane But Not Broken"

March 6, 2009

Analysis of:Canada banks' long history of steady dividends | www.financialpost.com

Canada's banking system is currently the soundest and most stable in the world.  For those with patience, the ability to foresee past the current environment and have a longer-term time horizon, shares of Canadian banks represent significant value and upside potential.

Gavin CampbellFounder, Managing PrincipalSteelbridge Capital LLC

Disconnect Between Public and Private Commercial Real Estate Markets

March 3, 2009

Analysis of:Commercial Property Activity Falls to 12-Year Low | www.cnbc.com

The slow down in commercial real estate transactions is a function of two things; the relative scarcity of acquisition financing and the large bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers. The recent drops in public REIT values are a harbinger of things to come in the private markets, and point to a more liquid market, dramatically reduced sales prices, and a higher volume of transactions towards the back half of this year.

Robert CanterPresident-FounderPerformance Realty Solutions, LLC

A Credit Crisis Solution that can really work for the commercial real estate market

February 27, 2009

Analysis of:How Geithner Can Price Troubled Bank Assets | online.wsj.com

For those who understand the implications of the current credit crisis, this article must be read to learn how such a simple solution is so workable.

Robert CanterPresident-FounderPerformance Realty Solutions, LLC

The Federal Reserve's Negative Outlook for Commercial Real Estate

February 24, 2009

Analysis of:Fed's Lockhart: Losing sleep on commercial property | www.reuters.com

The Federal Reserve has raised the Red Flag of caution on Commercial Real Estate. Unfortunately this flag had been raised over two years ago and no one paid attention. Just ask Susan Bies  former Fed Governor, she sounded the alarm in 2006.

Robert CanterPresident-FounderPerformance Realty Solutions, LLC

The Activity in the market will fall even further...this is just the beginning

February 23, 2009

Analysis of:Commercial Property Activity Falls to 12-Year Low | www.cnbc.com

What is important for everyone to keep and eye on is the unemployment figures. Unemployment is directly related to the overall vacancy rate, however the vacancy rate will lag a few months behind the unemployment numbers.

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