GLG News by Subprime Mortgage Experts (US)

Joseph SmithPresident and CEODefault Mitigation Management

The Real Write Downs - Whats in a number

May 27, 2008

Analysis of:Banks Keep $35 Billion Markdown Off Income Statements | www.bloomberg.com

The article is right on target in pointing out the various issues around bank reporting their losses todate. 1. Allowable accounting standards. 2. Permanent versus Temporary Losses 3. Capital Requirments The article goes on to highlight the various issues around soveriegn wealth funds, capital levels and loan leverage. The article ends with a list of "hidden losses" by various financial institutions. The interesting part of the article is the acknowledgement of an additional $35 B to be taken by the banks. The bigger issue is the losses to be taken by the investors.

Joseph SmithPresident and CEODefault Mitigation Management

Whose loss is it, Banks or Investors?

May 12, 2008

Analysis of:The Biggest Housing Losers | online.wsj.com

1. While the article does a good job of pointing out that the losses will be greater under the House FHA Plan than expected and that the tax payers will carry the cost, it along with the plan by the House  misses the mark by thinking banks will take advantage of the plan. 2. The real owners of these loans are the investors, not the banks. 3. The investors are already not doing short sales, why would they take 40 and 50% losses under this plan.

Joseph SmithPresident and CEODefault Mitigation Management

Fannie, Freddie and FHLB's are providing funding for now.

April 10, 2008

Analysis of:Fannie and Freddie drive home loans | www.ft.com

Through mid 2008 these will continue to be the drivers of home loan financing. Coming up quickly will be HUD/FHA. The unkown related player will be community banks, credit unions and small regionals. There is a problem that is already surfacing, add on fees by the banks using these groups for funding.

Joseph SmithPresident and CEODefault Mitigation Management

Be Careful What you ask for you might get it.

April 4, 2008

Analysis of:Overdue Consumer Debts Highest Since 1992, ABA Says | www.bloomberg.com

It looks like the legislative solution is not getting off the ground again as far as working out loans. The proposals that have come out are mainly directed at going forward purchasers, builders and cities. So much for the defualted borrower. The ideas that were being floated carried their own risk.

Joseph SmithPresident and CEODefault Mitigation Management

Expect to see more suits and bigger failures

March 24, 2008

Analysis of:Merrill Sues XL Capital to Maintain CDO Insurance | www.bloomberg.com

The article raises valid concerns on security of these insured transactions. Expect: 1. More suits as the insurers try legal tactics to invalidate coverage. 2. That the contracts and premiums have been paid and the courts will likely take a dim view of legal ploys to invalidate coverage based on semantics. 3. That the additional capital that has been raised by the monolines is still not sufficient to cover all of their risk.

Joseph SmithPresident and CEODefault Mitigation Management

What will the FED do next, what is left for them?

March 18, 2008

Analysis of:Fed Aggressive on Financial Front | money.aol.com

The Fed does not know what to do after they reduce interest tomorrow. This follows on the tail of the bailout of Bear Sterns in a sweet heart deal with JP Morgan/ Chase, and the opening of the FED window to non-depositories. The next issue and crisis is going to be the dollar value and its impact on the economy. Gas is going to continue up as will most other costs that are fuel dependent. What will be the impact as a G-7 goes off the dollar and say to the EURO?

Joseph SmithPresident and CEODefault Mitigation Management

That did not take long - Bear Sterns use of FED bailout

March 14, 2008

Analysis of:Bear Credit Woes Send Stocks Lower | money.aol.com

1. Market reacts to Bear liquidity and FED temporary bailout plan by dropping over 200 points. 2. Will market continue to yo-yo as these events happen. 3. Will FED change plan if Bear fails?

Joseph SmithPresident and CEODefault Mitigation Management

When will they learn?

March 12, 2008

Analysis of:Stock Futures Pare Early Gains | money.aol.com

How afraid is the FED of where the economy is going that has caused them to promote such a drastic step as opening up funds to non depository banks? 1. The Fed lending at Par for devalued assets to Non Banks. 2. Will more money be made available when the markets continues down? 3. How will write offs upon liquidation of the underlying asset be addressed, during the 28 days or before it is repledged to the next 28 day period? 

Brian HershkowitzChief Executive OfficerMaximum Value Group

One more consideration - RFC's market niche may be eroding

February 7, 2008

Analysis of:GMAC considers sale of troubled ResCap | www.ft.com

This is an important article because it is detailing the possible exit from the mortgage business of another player that only dealt minorly in the subprime world, if at all.  One of the considerations not discussed in the article is the effect of the potential Economic Stimulus Plan specifically on conduits such as ResCap RFC.

Joseph SmithPresident and CEODefault Mitigation Management

Fed Rate Cut Expected - Is that a good idea?

January 30, 2008

Analysis of:Fed Rate Cut Expected | news.aol.com

While many companies and investors are planning on what to do with cheaper money due to the rate cuts, one of the implications has been that a rate cut will help re-start the mortgage industry engine. Yes, originators will get some new refi's completed and earn some fee income, and there will be a few borrowers who were not in the market before that get in to it now. There will even be some purchases of some of the mortgage inventory. Due to tightening credit standards and qualification criteria, the number of new loans will be minimal and the refi's will be to the best credit worthy borrowers. Truthfully, the rate cuts of last week and this week will actually hurt the mortgage industry due to adverse selection in exisitng mortgage pools with subsequent accelerated write-downs.

Previous Page : 12345678910Next21 to 30 of 91