GLG News by Telecom Infrastructure & Equipment Experts

Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Hardball 2/19/10: Should We Believe AT&T on Wireless CAPEX This Time?

February 19, 2010

AT&T: Improving 3G network the major focus of 2010 | connectedplanetonline.com

AT&T has sat back while its wireless network has not been kept up adequately. Is there any reason to believe that network investments will come before dividends? We believe that AT&T probably knows it is not likely to retain exclusivity on Apple’s iPhone.

Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Hardball 2/17/10: Time for Alcatel-Lucent to Pack Up Bags in States?

February 17, 2010

Report: Ciena Scores at AT&T | www.lightreading.com

We wrote in May of last year an article titled “Alcatel-Lucent Could Easily Become a Non-Factor in US Soon.” In that piece we said, “Anybody in sourcing at a US large carrier is starting to think about the long-term viability of [the supplier].” Assuming the speculation in the source article is correct, a Ciena win would be a major blow to any hopes of reviving the market space for AlcaLu.

Lin SunConsultantSelf Employed 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Network Convergence: Hopes and Hurdles

February 8, 2010

Operator Strength and Weakness | tech.sina.com.cn

The State Council made a brief announcement in mid-January to begin network convergence, a topic that had floated for 15 years. The plan will take two steps. First, run trials during 2010-12 for “mutual” entry by telcos and broadcasters to “explore assurance for orderly development and policy framework.” Second, during 2013-15, expand experience from the trials to a full-blown physical convergence, the goal is to achieve a “proper competitive environment and a new efficient oversight system.”

Lin SunConsultantSelf Employed 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Operator Capex for 3G – Update

February 7, 2010

Operator Strength and Weakness | tech.sina.com.cn

While capital expenditure by the Chinese operators will fall this year, the extent of decline is different from one company to another. The main reason: 3G technology and current conditions (network overage and service) require different investment strategy. This is particularly the case for China Mobile. Capex for the largest wireless operator will drop, but 3G spending will see little change because it needs to cover more cities and improve quality of service for better user experience..

Lin SunConsultantSelf Employed 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Outlook for Huawei and ZTE

February 1, 2010

Operator Strength and Weakness | tech.sina.com.cn

Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corp. are the leading telecom equipment manufacturers. Both companies rose rapidly during the past decade for their aggressive sales in overseas markets. In 2009, they benefited from the surge in operator spending on 3G at home (see my separate posting). Huawei, for example, reported revenue from domestic sales passed $10 billion in 2009 or about 47% of total revenue, while share of overseas sales fell to 53% from 75% in 2008.

Lin SunConsultantSelf Employed 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Operator Capex in 2010

January 31, 2010

Operator Strength and Weakness | tech.sina.com.cn

Capital expenditure by Chinese operators is expected to decrease this year after a strong surge in 2009. According to MIIT, the industry regulator, three operators spent a little over 160 billion yuan ($23.7 billion) on 3G in 2009, approximately 43% of total capex for the year. In other words, 3G was the single largest sector for capex, and it may have reached the peak.

Lin SunConsultantSelf Employed 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Who’s the Winner in 3G? - Part One

January 31, 2010

Operator Strength and Weakness | tech.sina.com.cn

Contrary to the common belief, China is hardly a market economy, the government plays heavy hand directly or, in most times, behind the scenes. In our case, telecom operators cannot choose what 3G standard they use based on its technical merit and growth potential; it is, instead, decided by the government in the form of license. The government has the right to do so because it owns all operators;

Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Hardball 1/22/10: For the Last Time -- Google Doesn't Want to be a Telco

January 22, 2010

Has Google found its true calling? | brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com

Approaching two years ago we asked: “Why would a company that does an excruciatingly amount of cost analysis be attracted to a high-capital, potentially low-margin business?"  Google has no interest in “disrupting the telecommunications industry.” All of its investments in networks have only one goal -- to allow the users to connect to the cloud.

Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Hardball 1/15/10: VZ’s New Pricing Focus on Just LTE Types of Subs

January 15, 2010

Verizon Wireless Offers Simple, Affordable Convenience With New Unlimited Voice Plans | www.thestreet.com

The situation is analogous to Verizon on the wireline side in which residential customers that just get POTS are unattractive because they are not profitable for the carrier. In the same way, a bigger proportion of the lower-end wireless subscribers is less likely to pay on time and requires customer support for cheaper handsets. In going from over 80 skews down to a 50-skew lineup – and then reduced significantly from there – the stress is not likely to be on the “simple feature phones.”

Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Hardball 1/1/3/10: Apple’s 3G iPhone Expected at VZ Starting as Early as June

January 13, 2010

AT&T Gets a Bushel of Apple Bruising | www.thestreet.com

In December of last year we anticipated that Apple’s Tablet will work on Verizon Wireless’ 4G network by the second quarter of 2010. However, it appears that Apple’s iPhone will be used on Verizon’s 3G network starting as early as June. As the Verizon door continues to open further for Apple’s products, one could speculate even more on other future opportunities for the vendor at the wireless carrier. 

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