GLG News by Warehouse Club Retail Experts

Martin BrillManaging PartnerSweetwater Consulting LLC

A Few Well Merchandised Specialty Chains Buck The Negative Retail Tide.

April 17, 2008

Analysis of:Fighting Off the Chill: Retailers get Inventive To Combat Recession. WWD. | www.wwd.com

Discount stores are not the only sector holding up well in what has been described as the worst retail apparel environment in the past twenty years.   Innovative specialty chains that know their customers well are moving forward with fresh assortments and new product categories that speak to their customer’s wants and needs.

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Commodity Hedging-The Double Edged Sword

March 31, 2008

Analysis of:Against the Grain: Food Firms Hedge Costs | online.wsj.com

With ever rising commodity costs food companies that have hedged their key commodity purchases with forward buying have done quite well over the last year.Several key manufacturers have announced that they have hedged their raw materials by forward buying 60-70% of their 2008 needs.Lost in the discussion has been the potential for commodity prices to go down in the latter half of 2008.

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Kraft and Sara Lee turnaround ? Real or wishful thinking ?

March 14, 2008

Analysis of:Kraft, Sara Lee say turnaround efforts are succeeding | www.chicagotribune.com

Kraft and Sara Lee executives recently spoke at analyst conference concerning their recent improvements to drive sales growth and improve operating margins.Both suggested the progress is real and sustainable.   Kraft highlighted new products and headcount reduction as keys to their progress.New products are clearly needed and our key to drive future sales growth.The job cuts they mentioned are real and should help them provide a lower cost basis to expand marketing and potentially improve margins at the same time.  Sara Lee also touted new product innovation and organizational restructuring as means to improve their growth and enhance profitability.Pricing is also key at both companies as they face strong headwinds in the face of commodity inflation.  Do we believe both CEO's assertions and are better days ahead for both companies ?

Martin BrillManaging PartnerSweetwater Consulting LLC

Department Stores Are Giving Up Market Share to Discounters and Off-Price Retailers

March 7, 2008

Analysis of:Shares Slump as February Comps Disappoint | www.wwd.com

Middle income consumers are trading down from department stores such as Kohl's,  Bon-Ton and Macy's to off-price retailers and discounters like TJX and Ross Stores, Wal-Mart and Costco.  Missy apparel retailers and brands targeting "boomers" are suffering more than most in this economic downturn. Aeropostale, Urban Outfitter's, J. Crew and H&M are thriving at a time most specialty retailers, catering to younger shoppers, are reporting negative comps.

Martin BrillManaging PartnerSweetwater Consulting LLC

Sailing In Rough Waters, Old Navy Charts a New Merchandising Course

January 31, 2008

Analysis of:Makeover at Old Navy: Faster Fashion a Key to Monthly Collections | www.wwd.com

In moving  from a key item merchandizing strategy to monthly "wardrobe building collections," will Old Navy  alienate of many of its core customers? Does Old Navy have the sourcing and logistics structure in place to execute a fast fashion delivery initiative without severe disruption of its supply chain? With no apparel retail experience in his resume, can Glenn Murphy, CEO of Gap Inc.,  properly evaluate the risks to customer loyalty,  inherent to radical merchandizing strategy shifts?

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Who wins , who loses from rising food prices ? Part 2 --Retailers

January 11, 2008

Analysis of:Higher Food Prices Start to Pinch Consumers | online.wsj.com

As commodity prices increase, food manufacturers will be required to pass on higher raw material costs to their consumers.Over time these higher prices will put pressure on premium priced branded products and shift share to private label and value brands.Will this same pressure apply to retailers and hurt overall category sales ? Which retailers will benefit the most? Which retailers will be hurt on sales volume ?

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Who wins , who loses with higher food prices ?

January 10, 2008

Analysis of:Higher Food prices Start to Pinch Consumers | online.wsj.com

Commodity prices continue to rise driving prices higher in the grocery aisle.Wheat ,corn,dairy and oil prices continue to climb creating a very challenging environment for food manufacturers and retailers.The rising prices begs the question of who will this benefit and who will this hurt over 2008 ? There are several distinct categories of companies that rising food costs will impact: --Branded Food Manufacturers (Kraft,General Mills,Kellogg's etc) --Value Food Manufacturers (Private Label producers,value priced branded companies) --Restaurants and Foodservice manufacturers --Grocery Retailers

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Organic and Natural Foods Go Mainstream

December 5, 2007

Analysis of:Hot Cereal , Hey It's All Natural | www.nytimes.com

Large consumer packaged goods companies are finally waking up and embracing the volume opportunity in Organic and Natural Foods.For years ,most of the top selling products at Whole Foods and other Natural stores were made by small manufacturers.Large CPG companies were not quick to offer products because the volume was still small and there are greater difficulties in the manufacturing process to produce Natural and especially Organic products. Times are changing with many key retailers now starting to embrace Organic and Natural Foods.If their retail customers want these products its important that the large CPG companies offer them as part of their product portfolio.

Martin BrillManaging PartnerSweetwater Consulting LLC

Upper and Lower Apparel Retail Segments Will Survive A Rough Holiday Season

November 12, 2007

Analysis of:Bernanke on Holiday: Wait and See | www.wwd.com

While the very upper retail segment continues to perform well, off-price retailers and mass merchants will benefit most from a deteriorating economic outlook. Department Stores and Specialty Retailers must manage inventories skillfuly, in order to suvive the tough season ahead.

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Who Will Buy Wonder Bread ?

November 8, 2007

Analysis of:Twinkies Baker Opens Door To Bids | www.reuters.com

The recent article on Interstate Bakeries bankruptcy hearings now officially puts the company in play.IBC struggling from high plant and route costs and the unprecedented rise in flour costs has been attempting to emerge from bankruptcy.IBC Management has stated that their proposal values the company at  a value of at least $580mm.Yucaipa and Bimbo (Mexican bread retailer and owner of the Oroweat brand) have formed a group to propose an alternative deal.The result has been to effectively put IBC up for sale to all competing companies.

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